Playoffs? Playoffs?!: How the 49ers Could Still Miss Out
At 6-0, the 49ers have a 99.5% chance to make the playoffs. So what's up with that 0.5%?
The 6-0 San Francisco 49ers are basically in the playoffs already.
Their win over Washington on Monday night essentially ended any drama about that; while it’s still conceivable that the Rams or Seahawks could recover enough to knock them off of their NFC West throne, it’s hard to imagine just what sort of chaos would be required to actually launch the 49ers out of the postseason. After all, only three 6-0 teams have gone on to miss the playoffs since the merger. Two of them – 1978 Washington and 2003 Minnesota – would have made it in the modern, 14-team playoff era, as well; the extra playoff slot makes it even less likely the 49ers stay home in January. FTN’s updated playoff odds give the 49ers a 99.5% chance of making the postseason, which is more-or-less 100%.
“Basically”. “Essentially”. “Conceivable”. “Hard to imagine”. “Less likely”. “More-or-less”. Weasel words! Evasion! A dodge from having to actually think things through!
After all, the 2009 Broncos started 6-0. Like the 2026 49ers, they had a huge gap in their division, up 3.5 games over San Diego as they rode into their bye week. They weren’t as good as San Francisco, but they were good, with a 23.8% DVOA, a top-five defense and a top-ten offense. “Is it too early to ask whether Josh McDaniels can do it again?”, the Denver Post asked about their new head coach. “He was New England’s offensive coordinator in 2007, when the Patriots became the only team in history to finish the regular season with a 16-0 record.”
Turns out, McDaniels couldn’t even do it the first time. The Broncos would lose four games in a row off of their bye and then four more games to end the season, limping to an 8-8 record and finishing ninth in the conference. Physically worn down by a lack of depth, mentally worn down by McDaniels’ acerbic style, Denver’s collapse is arguably the biggest in NFL history, and a good reminder that nothing is final until it is actually final.
So. What is the 0.5% compared to the 99.5%? What does it look like for a 6-0 team to actually miss the playoffs? Because it takes more than just losing a bunch of games. The 2004 Vikings went 3-7 in their last 10 games but still made the playoffs. They had a cushion to start with, and the rest of the conference was shoveling wins to the AFC left, right and center. And while the easy answer for the 49ers is “substation happens, everyone gets hurt”, that too isn’t enough in and of itself. Hell, last year’s 49ers were still playing for the #1 seed in Week 18 despite finishing 28th in Adjusted Games Lost, and teams like the 2024 Lions or 2021 Titans have ended up reaching the postseason despite sending two dozen players or more to the injured reserve list. Build yourself a big enough of a cushion early, and it doesn’t matter if you’re limping to the finish line like the Bluesmobile.
This – and their very high DVOA – is why the 49ers have opened up a massive lead in FTN’s Super Bowl odds. It’s not just that they’re playing very good football. It turns out that in order to win the Super Bowl, you must first qualify for the postseason, and the 49ers almost have that tied up in a bow. Almost.
It’s one thing to know the math behind clinching a postseason berth; it’s another to actually try to crack open the sims and see what it would actually take. It gives us a better appreciation both of the lead that a 6-0 team can build – and the sort of craziness that can happen in an NFL season. Come with me to one of many possible futures, and let’s look at one path – possibly the most likely path – that leaves the 49ers home this January. And let’s do it without resorting to “rocks fall; everyone dies.”
Falcon Punch!
While we’re not adding any new injuries, we certainly can work with the ones we already have. The 49ers enter Week 7 with Mike Evans very questionable, thanks to aggravating his already-sore Achilles against Washington. The 49ers decide to give Evans a week off – two, actually, with the bye week coming right afterwards. They have a cushion, after all, and a healthy Evans down the stretch is worth a tough game in the middle of October. But with Deebo Samuel and DeMarcus Robinson also not returning until after the bye week, plus Christian Kirk’s recovery taking slightly longer than expected, the 49ers enter the game with a wide receiver corps of Jacob Cowing, Brandin Cooks and Jordan Watkins. While San Francisco looks slightly more combobulated than they did in the second half against Washington, at some point, you just run out of juice. The Falcons are able to attack San Francisco’s comparatively weak run defense, with Bijan Robinson going off for 150 yards and three touchdowns. That forces the 49ers into a situation where they have to pass to keep up, and while Brock Purdy does hit George Kittle repeatedly, they ultimately just do not have the horses to keep up at the end of the day. Atlanta wins, 29-22, handing San Francisco their first loss of the season.
Elsewhere, the specter of the NFC North and NFC West continue to lurk, as we introduce the other characters in this story. The Rams recover from their faceplant against Arizona last week to put a beating on the Raiders, Sean McVay leaning on three tight-end sets in the absence of Davante Adams to get a panic-calming road win. Zach Charbonnet returns for Seattle, and it turns out that not having sub-replacement level running backs helps the Seahawks offense look functional. Yes, it’s still very one-dimensional and based on plenty of bombs to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but they won a Super Bowl doing that. Kenneth Walker has a pretty big day for Kansas City against his old team, but the Seahawks are able to pick Patrick Mahomes off a couple times, avoid the killer turnovers that have haunted them all season, and pick up a big win on Sunday Night Football.
Over in the North, the Vikings have Daniel Jones seeing ghosts all day. Caleb Williams and the Bears wins a Thursday shootout against Drake Maye and the Patriots, a no-defense-required showcase that puts Williams back on the path towards 4,000 passing yards. And we need one of the Lions or Packers to do well. It helps us more if it's Detroit, because the Rams need to rack up wins and they play Green Bay on Thanksgiving Eve, which apparently is a thing now. We’ll give Detroit the win after a returning Brian Branch picks Jordan Love off in the end zone at the end of the game, just barely getting both shoes down and preserving a win. A loss for the 49ers; a win for all their rivals. Oh well, it’s just one week.
