Anti-Dynasty #53: 2001-13 Buffalo Bills

Peak Anti-Dynasty Points: 46
Record: 80-128 (.385)
Average DVOA: -7.8%
Bottom-Five DVOA: -15.8%
Two last-place finishes in the AFC; Nine last-place finishes in the AFC East
Head Coaches: Gregg Williams, Mike Mularkey, Dick Jauron, Perry Fewell, Chan Gailey, Doug Marrone
Key Players: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Fred Jackson, RB Travis Henry, WR Lee Evans, WR Eric Moulds, T Jason Peters, G Ruben Brown, DE Aaron Schobel, DE Chris Kelsay, DT Kyle Williams, LB Takeo Spikes, LB London Fletcher, CB Nate Clements, CB Terrence McGee, S Jarius Byrd, S Donte Whitner, K Rian Lindell
Z-Score: -5.53

Our first Decade of Despair team ranks a little lower than you might have expected. Much like their 1990s Super Bowl teams had an inflated reputation compared to their advanced stats, the 2000s Bills aren't as bad as their record would indicate. It didn't make it feel that much better on the field, but at least Buffalo fans can hold onto the fact that they had the best lost decade in NFL history. Small comforts.

Every playoff drought of more than a dozen years is represented on the dynasty list, and the Bills' 17-year gap between postseason berths is no exception; it's tied for the longest in the wild-card era. But missing the playoffs alone isn't enough to make a season bad, especially once you start getting back to the years where only two to four teams made the postseason; the final rankings of the Anti-Dynasty list really don't align with the longest NFL playoff droughts. Even the Bills don't get their full 17-year drought included; the final Doug Marrone team was just one game out of the postseason and the Rex Ryan teams weren't all that far out of contention. In a world where they didn't have to play the Patriots twice a season, you could imagine one of those teams slipping into the playoffs—those are more "heartbreak" years than they are "terrible football team" years, and the Anti-Dynasty rankings won't have those kinds of years mucking up the rankings, thank you very much. We have standards here.

These Bills also have the best team in the DVOA era to miss the playoffs. The 2004 Bills only finished 9-7, but ended up with a 28.1% DVOA. They were the third-best team in football that year, led by Takeo Spikes, Sam Adams, a defense and special teams that both ranked first in the league, and an offense that also existed in physical space. Had they been able to beat the Steelers' backups in Week 17, they would have made the playoffs and cut this drought down before it started. They are, by a wide margin, the best team to have a place in the Anti-Dynasty standings. When you have a team that good, it really puts a damper on your statistics. Remove it, and the Bills' average DVOA would fall to -10.7% and lift them at least a couple more spots in the rankings.

No, the fact of the matter is that while these Bills teams were bad, they usually were not terrible. They never finished as the worst team in the league and were frequently closer to playoff contention than first-pick consideration; only three of the 13 seasons included saw them win fewer than six games. These Bills always felt like they were a piece or two away from contention; pieces they simply could not find. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and again, but the Bills stumbled around for nearly two decades without being able to put the finishing touches on some potentially promising teams. Generally, that "one missing piece" was a quarterback; these teams averaged 23rd in the league in passing DVOA, trotting out Alex Van Pelt, Drew Bledsoe, Kelly Holcomb, J.P. Losman, and Trent Edwards in the 2000s. And then, of course, when some stability arrived with Ryan Fitzpatrick, the defense crumbled. No Bills quarterback topped a 10.0% passing DVOA between Van Pelt in 2001 and Josh Allen in 2020. Now that Allen is here, the Bills have fallen into a much more familiar groove – the team that can never get it done at the end of the season. Respect tradition, and all that.