Biggest Plays of Week 1

One play can change a game; one game can change a season. That's just as true in Week 1 as it is in Week 18, so there's no reason to only start caring about close wins and losses at the end of the year. If your team blows a lead or has a clutch, come-from-behind victory in September, that might end up being the difference between winning the division and being a wild card – or staying home entirely.

I used to a "10 biggest plays of the week" countdown over on a site called Playsheet; which sadly no longer exists. I'm porting it over here, with a small change – rather than a specific top 10 countdown, these are just the 10 largest plays grouped by game, in no particular order. It's still the same principle as the Biggest Play of the Season – win probability change times playoff probability change. You just don't need to literally be THE biggest play to show up.

So, in January, when we're diving through playoff odds to try to figure out who finishes where in what situations, we can look back through these articles and remember, oh yeah, THAT'S when we missed that extra point or made that big interception, and that's why we're here. A logbook of potential huge moments. Let's go!

Seattle Seahawks 13, New England Patriots 10

JSN Off to the Races

A big touchdown play on 4th down is often going to show up on these lists, just because of the leverage – Ben Baldwin's RBSDM credits this with a 28% swing in win probability – and JSN's speed is turns it from a nice conversion into a game-tying score. JSN had 4.7 yards per route run in Week 1, and a lot of it came right here. Huge guts calling this play with a backup quarterback, too.

Mack Hollins, Zone Beater

Another 4th down conversion, this time as the Patriots tried to drive to win the game. The Seahawks had shown pressure just before this, then called a time out and dropped back into a soft zone, surprisingly. That didn't work and it's – Mack Hollins? Hollins, in the first half, essentially only came in to run block, but when A.J. Brown went down, Hollins was called upon to actually play wide receiver. Great catch here to keep the drive alive.

Josh Jobe and the Biggest Play of the Season (So Far)

Nearly a week later, and I still have no idea what Drake Maye saw here. Frankly, Maye actually played pretty well if you exclude the three passes that were intercepted –. That's a real "other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?" stat if I've ever heard one. RBSDM gives this a 56% win probability change, and frankly, that's too low – it only moved Seattle's win probability to 93%, which is part of the reason why I'm not doing an explicit, mathematical list of the best in order here – this ended the game, and even if the best loss is a loss to the other conference, it's still a loss. Fortunately for New England, this isn't a common game with Buffalo, who get the Rams later this year instead – one fewer tiebreaker this can affect.

Detroit Lions 31, New Orleans Saints 30 (OT)

Jameson Williams, Schrodinger's Receiver

All the Lions-Saints plays are from overtime, because of course they are – not only is overtime more important than regulation, but the way the game actually played out, with the Lions getting a huge lead and the Saints coming back strong, meant that few individual plays from quarters 1-4 ended up weighing in heavily.

We charted Jameson Williams with two drops on nine targets, and only four catches – he had kind of a shocking first half. This, though, was nice – Jared Goff had one of his nicer throws on the day and gets the huge pickup, setting up the go-ahead touchdown in overtime. This was a bigger gain and a tougher situation than the eventual score, so it ends up slightly bigger in win probability stuff, but it was just nice to see Williams actually do something successful.

Chris Olave Goes Off

Chris Olave caught all seven of his targets in the second half or overtime – the main catalyst of New Orleans' comeback (sorry, Tyler Shough), and good for 55 receiving DYAR on the day. This one keeps the drive and game alive – the Saints only needed three yards, but Olave just slips into the gap between the linebackers and safeties downfield and picks up a far-too-easy 20 yards. The Lions need their safeties back, and soon.

Going For it All...and Failing.

To go for the win, or not to go for the win? The ending of OT brought with it a lot of discussion on just how to handle an overtime situation. With a 10-minute time limit, I do think the second-mover advantage is strong enough to justify kicking off to start overtime and risking the chances of your opponent pulling off a 10-minute scoring drive. That seems less likely than the odds of time running out before a potential third, sudden-death drive can happen. In overtime, that changes, and I want the ball first so I can force my opponents into a do-or-die situation, but the math on that is nebulous and close, and really more up to personal choice than anything else. The 10-minute OT time limit just kind of ruins it.

As for this one in particular, with 1:34 left in overtime, I think the two-point conversion is the only justifiable call from the Saints. Had they kicked the extra point, they don't lose here, true – but you're giving Jared Goff and the Lions the ball back with 90 seconds and a time-out to get into game-winning field goal range. That's a rotten scenario to go in, and I'd rather put all my eggs in the two-point conversion basket.

...But no one's open here. The best odds here may have been Travis Etienne leaking out on the back side of the play, but you can't expect Shough to turn around and find that when the play is obviously designed to go to SOMEONE on the right. Still, you can't sail it out of bounds. Even if Bryce Lance gets his hands on that, he's coming down out of bounds. Saints had no chance here, and the Lions barely hang on.

Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31

Josh Allen, MVP?

If you had to pick an MVP after Week 1 – and that would be a really silly thing to do, why would you do that – Josh Allen is probably it. Not only does he continue to climb up the all-time rushing touchdown leaderboards, but he also makes throws like this laser to Joshua Palmer; a clutch play in a crucial moment in what may well be a preview of the AFC Championship. Allen led the league with 167 passing DYAR in Week 1, and that's without full opponent adjustments for having to face the Texans defense, expected to be great. Damn, but he's good, isn't he?

C.J. Stroud Comes Up Short

Note that this is the first sack the Bills had on C.J. Stroud in the final 30 seconds; the one that put Houston into 2nd-and-18 and forced them to burn their final timeout. This changed the Texans' final couple plays from a controlled situation against a top opponent to more of a desperation mode – you go from being able to use the entire field to basically playing boundary ball, with maybe time for one intermediate completion if you hurry and don't mind moving to fourth down. That makes it more painful than the Rousseau sack that actually ended the game; this knocked off about 27% win probability while the final sack knocked out the remaining 16%, per RBSDM.

Two sacks in the final three plays brings up bad memories of Stroud's playoff run, which is more than fair, but Stroud actually looked fine for most of the game. He was attacking the middle of the field very well, which I think is a promising sign – 81 DYAR between the numbers, as those intermediate slants and crossing patterns that weren't always there last season showed up. I think Texans fans have to be more optimistic about their offense after watching this game...though the way it ended leaves a sour taste in their mouths. I get it.

Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14

Special Teams Blunder

Oh, the back-breaking punt block, that turned a problem into a crisis for the Chargers.

Hell of a design here by Arizona. They shift Cody Simon late, as soon as the long snapper's head goes down, and then they send Semi Fehoko in on a stunt. Rookie Ahkeem Mesidoor is left with two guys to block and no line calls to help him out. I suspect he hoped Kendall Williamson, the personal protector, would pick up Fehoko coming through, but he had to help the overloaded left side of the line Fehoko gets nearly a free run, blocks the punt, and sets up Arizona for a touchdown two plays later that basically kills Los Angeles. Forcing the punt here was already a win; basically getting a free touchdown out of it more-or-less ended the game. Kudos to special teams coordinator Michael Ghobrial and his crew.