The Biggest Play of the 2026 Season (So Far)

Last updated: Week 4, Chiefs @ Raiders

This is something I've done in a Bluesky thread (or before that, a Twitter thread, or before that, yelling at my neighbors until they throw a shoe at me) – the Biggest Play of the NFL Season. And, since I have this new blog, why not also put it here, for posterity's sake!

We're tracking which play has the biggest impact in determining who eventually is Super Bowl champion. This typically ends up being, you know, a play in the Super Bowl, because that's how that works; the ur-example being Malcolm Butler's interception in Super Bowl XLIX. But it doesn't necessarily have to be – last year's Super Bowl was enough of a blowout that the most significant play of the 2025 season ended up being Jarret Stidham Jarrett Stidhamming it up in the AFC Championship. And before that, it was a bunch of plays in the epic Rams-Seahawks regular season game, and so on and so forth all the way back to the opening kickoff of Week 1. It's fun to look back on them, when the season is over, and see how things developed.

In short, this is basically a running list of win probability in a game times Super Bowl odds. I'll keep this updated as new biggest plays happen – which will occur frequently towards the beginning of the season, and then slow down. Probably.

Play No. 1: The Patriots' Opening Kickoff
New England @ Seattle, Week 1

By default, the first play of the year is the first most important play of the year. Football! It's back, in opening kickoff form.

Play No.2 : Welcome to the NFL, Jadarian Price
New England @ Seattle, Week 1

The first play from scrimmage – a 13-yard run off tackle for Seattle's first-round draft pick, Jadarian Price. This put him on pace for 18,502 rushing yards on the season; I'd have to check, but I believe that would be the NFL record. I'll keep you posted on that.

Price got just 10 carries in the game as the Seahawks slowly work him in after missing a bunch of time in camp. He looked...fine. His first run was his best run, but take that out and he still had 4.3 yards per carry. Nice first touch, though.

Play No. 3: Welcome to 2026, NFL Referees
New England @ Seattle, Week 1

This is Eric Saubert's false start two plays after Price's run. I, uh. I didn't bother clipping video of the false start.

It pushed the Seahawks back out of New England territory, and gave them 1st-and-15. You hate to get in automatic passing situations, because then you have to face the Patriots' pass rush, and...

Play No. 4: Sam Darnold's Injury
New England @ Seattle, Week 1

These plays make the list solely based on their impact in a game, so this is "just" a third-down sack by Dre'Mont Jones to force a punt.

Of course, it may end up being much more significant, because Sam Darnold limped off the field and straight into the X-Ray room. There were initial fears that he had fractured his hip, though the initial CT scans have a more positive outlook. If Darnold misses significant time, though, the Seahawks are going to struggle – Drew Lock is a somewhat-less-than-ideal backup, as Mike Tanier's backup quarterback rankings indicate. Hell of a sense of timing on that piece, Mike. I don't think Lock scuttles Seattle's season or anything, but if Darnold's injury is measured in months, not weeks, I think they have to make a move to bring someone in. Jimmy Garoppolo is available...as is Russell Wilson...

Play No. 5: The Most Effective Play in Football
New England @ Seattle, Week 1

Is there any play more frustrating than the underthrown pass interference? Josh Jobe has no idea here that the ball is coming in too short; he's trying to run to keep up with A.J. Brown. And when Brown stops to come back to the ball, Jobe basically has no alternative other than to run through him. It's a textbook foul, but it feels so cheap when it happens – a better throw means the defense doesn't get penalized? Bleh. This is the argument for there being a lighter, 15-yard version of defensive pass interference. And the argument against it is letting referee discretion play a larger role in games, and nobody wants that. Bleh. Bleh, I say!

Play No. 6: There Goes JSN
New England @ Seattle, Week 1

4th-and-1, down a touchdown, fourth quarter, just past midfield, with a backup quarterback under center. How many teams just run the safe QB sneak or halfback plunge here, just try to pick up the first, and move on? I admire the guts Brian Fleury shows here to trust Drew Lock to make a throw to keep the game alive.

Not that it's the most difficult throw in the known universe. This is schemed up perfectly, and it's a fairly easy pitch-and-catch to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the first down; maybe 10 yards just on the screen being set up very well. The other 35 yards, well, that's JSN's turning on the jets (plus some very solid downfield blocking from Barner). JSN is too damn good, please nerf him, thank you, sincerely, a San Francisco 49ers fan.

Play No. 7: Josh Jobe Makes Things Right
New England @ Seattle, Week 1

OK, Josh Jobe, you're off the hook. An interception in the end zone to clinch the 1-0 start rather than the 0-1 start will make up for a big DPI loss, I guess.

Drake Maye was alright this game until the fourth quarter, when he almost single-handedly blew things for New England. Three fourth quarter interceptions, all in a competitive game? It's almost hard to fathom. The first one was almost excusable – an intentional decision to try to get Romeo Doubs to make a contested catch. Now, Doubs is not good at making contested catches, but the logic was there. The second pick was a terrible decision; Maye getting fooled by Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon's games in the secondary.

And then there's this. Clearly, this was not how the play was drawn up – note both tackles cutting at the same time. Maybe you do that on a little five-yard pattern; not a deep shot into the end zone. Maye has to know that he can throw this ball away, the Patriots can kick the game-tying field goal, and we can keep playing football. Instead, Maye tries to force a ridiculous pass into the end zone – a bit of bad luck that Jobe was able to get his feet down inbounds, but still, what a decision. It was the only outcome that could have hurt the Patriots, and, well...

Maye was 0-for-4 with all three interceptions on passes of at least 20 air yards against the Seahawks. Seattle didn't get to Maye as often as they did in the Super Bowl, but they took anything, and I mean anything deep off the table, and any time Maye tried to stretch something, they made him pay. And so the defending NFC champs are 1-0 and the defending AFC champs are 0-1. And, as of September 9th, that's the biggest play of the 2026 NFL season so far. Watch this space...

Play No. 8: Derrick Harmon Breaks Through
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh, Week 3

The Pittsburgh Steelers were having trouble getting pressure on Joe Burrow all day long. Burrow had thrown for 282 yards against their zone coverage, picking them apart in a manner the Steelers aren't really used to facing. Burrow also stayed mostly clean all day – he had been hit four times and hurried a couple more, but he hadn't been sacked. And, despite some special teams blunders and a nightmare defensive performance, the Bengals had the ball on the edge of field goal range to ate least tie things, with the very real possibility of Burrow hitting another big pass play to get the wind.

Instead, Derrick Harmon ripped past Dalton Risner, brought Burrow down on his second effort, and jarred the ball loose. Sebastian Joseph-Day fell on top of it, and the game was over - Pittsburgh goes to 2-1 with a huge divisional win.

Had the Bengals gone on to score a touchdown and win, they'd be 3-0 – a full game ahead of Baltimore and Cleveland, with a divisional win in hand. They'd have been tied with the Chiefs and Bills atop the conference, albeit behind them based on strength of victory. The Steelers would have been at the very bottom of the 1-2 pile, with an 0-2 start in the conference really hurting their tiebreakers. Instead, Pittsburgh now sits atop the 2-1 knot with the division win, while Cincinnati sits at the bottom of the 2-1 pile on the outside looking in. All because Risner couldn't handle Harmon.

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Play No. 9: A Pyrrhic Win for Tyquan Thornton
Kansas City @ Las Vegas, Week 4

Don't worry, this video cuts out just before the injury.

Football sucks, sometimes.

Tyquon Thornton was having the best day of his career – and for a Kansas City Chiefs team that really needed him, with Rashee Rice getting hurt earlier in this game. Thornton had five catches for 111 yards, none bigger than this one, in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter. With undefeated Kansas City trailing to undefeated Las Vegas, facing a third-and-gotta-have-it, Thornton burned rookie Treydan Stukes on a deep crossing route, stumbling down inside the ten yard line – in easy range for the go-ahead field goal, with potential for more.

Thornton, as you might expect, got up ready to celebrate. And then he went right back down, because his foot was facing the wrong way. Once the adrenaline had worn off, Thornton was pointing to his foot in obvious pain. He had to be assisted off the field, and while he was able to return to Kansas City, it looks a lot like his season is over with a dislocated ankle. Horrible.

In the short term, this flipped the game to keep the Chiefs undefeated. Their win probability jumped from about 43% to 79% after this catch, and that was before Kenneth Walker scored the next play, the ensuing two-point conversion, OR the Raiders fumbling the ensuing kickoff. There was only going to be one undefeated AFC team; one team sitting in the #1 seed – and this made sure it was the Chiefs, who make sense, as opposed to the Raiders, who would be ~crazy.

In the long term, well, now the Chiefs need to find a replacement for Tyquan Thornton. It may be time to break the glass on Tyreek Hill's phone number.