Halloween Havoc: 3 Teams that Might Ghost the Playoffs

Seven weeks in to the 2026 NFL season, and we’re beginning to get some real stratification between the haves and have-nots. Seven games isn’t quite enough to start printing playoff tickets, nor is it time to entirely give up on the season, but it’s hard to be entirely a fluke through six or seven games.

Even if you’ve been punching above your weight for a month and a half and are about to crater, you can build up enough of a lead to this point in time where you can coast to the postseason. Take this week’s Houston Texans v. New York Giants game, for instance. DVOA and other advanced stats would call the Giants the worst team currently in playoff position, but a 1.5-game lead in a division that doesn’t exactly have a ton of powerhouses is nothing to sneeze at. Playing .500 ball the rest of the way gets them into the postseason more often than not. On the other hand, while the Texans have been playing better than you would expect a 2-5 team to play, at some point, you do need to actually see some results. I would fully expect the Texans to win more games down the stretch than the Giants will, regardless of the loss we saw this week. And yet, because the Texans have dug such a big hole for themselves, they’re at a point where finishing 7-3 might not get them into the postseason. At a certain point, it doesn’t matter if you start playing better or not; you’ve sealed your fate.

We’re not at “fate sealed” levels quite yet, but we’re getting there. Over the last ten years, an average of 3.2 teams in playoff position on Halloween have ended up staying home come January. That rate has increased a little with the addition of the seventh seeds – you’re more likely to see someone just hanging on there in the seventh seed than you are in the sixth – but we’ve been hovering around three teams out for a generation now. Even in 2023, which saw the most chaos, we only lost five teams – the 4-4 Saints, 4-4 Vikings, 5-2 Seahawks, 4-3 Jets and 6-2 Jaguars. Those Jaguars show that yes, any team can collapse, especially if your quarterback has to play through an injury over the last month and a half. But generally speaking, if you’re in playoff position now, you’re doing alright for yourself.

This, of course, leads us to the question of…who will it be? Which three or four teams currently sitting pretty will find themselves sitting at home in January? Well, if we knew, we wouldn’t bother watching the rest of the year, would we. Still, let’s offer up a few guesses.

Green Bay Packers

Currently, all four NFC North teams are sitting in playoff position. That’s going to be really hard to maintain, with eight games left between the four teams. Keeping all four of them in playoff position would require two of the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers to all fall out of playoff contention, and that seems like a bridge too far. They’re going to beat up on one another, and someone is going to fall out of contention, even if they’re one of the seven best teams in the conference.

The Lions have the most opportunities to fall out, as they’ve only played one divisional game so far. But the Packers are a half-game back, and they’re the ones I would pick out of the pile if I was trying to send someone packing. Pun not intended, but very much approved.

The Green Bay defense has been better than anyone expected, I will grant you that, and at some point, Micah Parsons should return. Jordan Love is bombing the ball deep with reckless abandon, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have responded well. But the offensive line is beyond shambles at this point, and the running game is dead last in the league in DVOA. The return of Josh Jacobs might take them out of the cellar there, but he’s not going to move the needle all by himself. Meanwhile, with Sean Rhyan out for 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain, the Packers are now down to their third-string center, whether they decide that’s John Williams or Jager Burton, who I believe is from Pacific Rim. This, on top of Aaron Banks being in and out of the lineup and also not very good. Green Bay is dead last in adjusted line yards, and not by a little bit – nearly a full half-yard worse than 31st-ranked Las Vegas. They get, essentially, no push, which is somewhat less than ideal. They’re substantially better in pass protection, but a team can’t survive if they’re the worst running team in football. Add on top of that the fact that no team is dropping as many passes as Green Bay, and you begin to ask yourself how much you can trust the Packers offense, play in and play out. Consistency and dependability are in short supply in Lambeau, and that’s before you even get to Trey Smack and the kicking game.

Green Bay may not even be in playoff position by the time Halloween rolls around; lose to Carolina and Seattle takes their place as the seventh seed. I think Green Bay should be able to handle the Panthers on a short week, and they still have winnable games against the likes of Miami yet to come on their schedule. It also helps that two of their three remaining divisional games are in Lambeau. But @New England, @LA Rams, v. Buffalo? There are some rough spots ahead for Green Bay. Not enough that you think they’ll drop below .500, but you may need 11 wins to get in the NFC playoffs this year. 6-4 gets Green Bay in more often than not, but you really need at least some of those six wins to come in the division or against the Rams. Sixth, seventh or out seem like their likely outcomes to me, and as I said before, something’s gotta give in the North.