State of the Playoff Race: AFC's Haves and Have-Nots

The AFC playoffs may not be set in stone.  But the concrete is setting, at the very least.

The gap between the haves- and have-nots in the AFC is pretty dramatic.  Through eight weeks, there are zero teams with three wins, and no weakling divisions offering hope to some of the stragglers.  A whopping six teams are at least three wins out of the playoff picture, which is an insanely high number for less than halfway through the season.

By comparison, the Cardinals are the only team in the NFC at least three games out of a playoff spot at the moment.  The odds that, say, the Eagles are going to suddenly rebound and be serious contenders with Jalen Hurts out for the year are laughably slim.  But at least everyone there is still in “win a bunch more games and something good will happen” mode.  The gap between the haves and the have-nots in the AFC is one of the widest we’ve ever seen, and it’s going to create a strange playoff run down the stretch.

It is far more common for no teams in a conference to be three games out than for six teams to be stragglers.  The level of parity in the NFL means that two months is usually too short a time period to really see anyone approach near mathematical elimination.  There have been other lopsided years in recent history, with 2020 being a notably bad one for both conferences, but you have to go all the way back to the 2000 AFC to find another year with half a dozen teams so far back.  We’re talking pre-seventh seed, pre-realignment, pre-Brady.  A time so far removed from our own that we’re talking about the 6-1 Jets, 6-1 Titans and 6-1 Raiders leading their divisions, the Dolphins and Colts prime wild card contenders and division rivals, and an 0-7 Chargers team led by Jim Harbaugh.

…OK, some things don’t change so much.

Honestly, things are even a little less close than they appear.

The Ravens may be 4-4, but they’ve just lost Lamar Jackson for the season, and Snoop Huntley is out for an extended time with a turf toe injury.  Joe Fagnano was exciting in the preseason, but third-string quarterbacks are third-string quarterbacks for a reason.  Is it possible he’s the next Brock Purdy and will come out of nowhere to lead the Ravens on a playoff run?  Sure, theoretically.  I wouldn’t be holding my breath.

The Raiders are 4-4 as well, but FTN’s playoff odds only give them about twice as much of a chance of making the postseason as Baltimore – 12.6%.  Kirk Cousins has been, frankly, amazing – a remarkable return to form after being more-or-less written off after his injury in Minnesota and benching in Atlanta.  Banking four wins and having that means they’re certainly not out of the race, either.  But, after a hot start, Las Vegas lost three games in a row, only bouncing back to beat the lowly Jets in a shootout.

The Raiders have no real defense to speak of, 31st in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed, not to mention the second-worst defensive DVOA and absolute worst rush defense DVOA in the league.  Maxx Crosby and Nakobe Dean are the only ones on the defensive side of the ball having a good year, though you can stretch that to Taron Johnson if you’re feeling particularly generous.  The Raiders are a fun bad team, and a bad team that can clobber other, worse teams – their victories come over opponents with a combined 5-24 record, giving them the worst strength of victory in the league.  All that is to say that while Klint Kubiak deserves a ton of praise for making Las Vegas watchable right off the bat, and it looks like they’re going to comfortably go over their preseason projection of 5.5 wins, it’s hard to call them serious playoff contenders.  Positive vibes, yes, and that’s important for a franchise that hasn’t won double-digit games since 2021.  A promising future. But I doubt we’ll see them do much in 2026.

And that brings us to the Browns, the other team outside of playoff position at the moment.  Cleveland could have been in first place in the division had they finished the sweep of the Steelers, but instead they got fairly easily crushed and tossed aside.  They have required fourth-quarter, game-winning drives in all five of their wins to this point.  They kind of are in the opposite situations of the Raiders, as their defense is the one buoying the team.  While not quite as good as they were last year – losing a Myles Garrett will do that – they’re still a top-10 pass defense team and solid enough against the run to make life difficult for opposing offenses.  It’s the offense that stinks out loud.

You can find more highlights on the Cleveland offense than you can on the Las Vegas defense.  Spencer Fano is having a very solid rookie season.  The rest of the offensive line has also had their moments, though they’re low in adjusted line yards and high in adjusted sack rate; the total is less than the sum of its parts so far.  Both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston have flashed in the first half of their rookie seasons, and Harold Fannin has been generally reliable.  It’s just they have no running game to speak of and their quarterback is terrible, and also not very good at football. 

Deshaun Watson is 20th in passing DVOA so far.  That is about 10 spots higher than I thought he’d rank, so that is positive, but he still wilts under pressure.  He’s taken 33 sacks this season, the most in the league.  Not all of these are his fault, but you have to be able to avoid some of those and throw the ball away.  At running back, Quinshon Judkins falls into about the same boat – 29th out of 46 qualified running backs.  Only the Eagles and Chargers score less frequently than Cleveland does; only Denver’s drives last fewer plays; only the Chargers score fewer points per drive.  They live on a big play here or there and a defense that keeps them hanging into things, but they are also not serious contenders.

If you could combine Las Vegas’ offense and Cleveland’s defense, then you’d have something – the Raidery Browns would be a legitimate contender.  And I’m certainly not calling Cleveland’s season dead with five wins banked; not in a conference where so many teams have faded out of relevancy.  But I find it hard to see the Browns seriously challenging anyone down the stretch.

But maybe they will.  Historically, someone steps up in the second half of a year.  Maybe the Browns’ play grows into their record, or Las Vegas’ defense stops a team or two.  Maybe one of the two-win teams suddenly get hot – Houston has been playing better than their record would indicate, even if the hole they’ve dug may be too deep to climb out of at this point.

Or maybe, we’ll have seven teams knowing they’re playoff-bound come mid-December.  That’s not to say there’d be nothing to play for, mind you.  The Broncos ensured they kept the AFC West race alive with their win over Kansas City on Sunday.  The Bills and Patriots look set to go down to the wire for the AFC East title.  Cincinnati has a screamingly easy schedule from here on out, and they’ve got a real shot to take the #1 seed when all is said and done.  But we could have a situation where the last two or three weeks are filled with teams deciding just how hard to push and who to risk coming back from minor injuries as they prepare for the postseason.

Hopefully, a couple of these lower-tier teams will find a way to bridge the gap and make things interesting over the last few weeks.  If not, well, there’s always the NFC – but that’s a story for another article.

What might it look like for a down-and-out team to cross that gap?  Well, let’s look at Miami…